CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-19T03:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-19T03:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46923/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. Not clearly visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S40E40 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery with liftoff starting around 2026-06-18T21:36Z. Dimming is also seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Preliminary glancing blow arrival observed at 2026-06-23T03:43Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components up to 10nT and minor increase in speed to ~360 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-23T03:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 2.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-23T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46925/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-19T03:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-40.0, Lat.=-23.0, Speed=380.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2026-06-19T12:27Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-23T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-21T06:00Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-25T03:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-24T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260619_122700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 86.38 hour(s)
Difference: -4.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-19T13:20Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy